Forecasting The Future

rPerhaps it is because I tuned into the show American Inventor, but I find myself wondering if business owners are forgetting that focus groups and customer surveys, while helpful, are not meant to be mini-product development sessions. Watching this show, you might think otherwise as the contestants, ordinary people with good ideas, strain under the advice of focus groups that, in some cases, aren't even representative of the right target audience.

Case in point: one inventor was shocked to hear that a car seat capable of saving a child's life was not aesthetically pleasing enough to purchase. While the inventor couldn't believe his ears, I couldn't believe my eyes. This focus group participant was obviously single and without kids. Of course, from there, the product became fair game and every participant suddenly had two cents despite a lack of common sense.

Come on. Surely if you asked a focus group, let's say, whether they would buy water in a glass bottle for 4 times the amount of other bottled water, they would have laughed in your face. Yet, Perrier stands up as one of the best marketing success stories of all times.

So why does this happen? Simple. Evidence has always suggested that focus group participants lie. As Harvard Business School professor Gerald Zaltman wrote in his book "How Customers Think:" The correlation between stated intent and actual behavior is usually low and negative. In fact, 80 percent of new products or services fail within six months when they've been vetted through focus groups. Hollywood films and TV pilots--virtually all of which are screened by focus groups--routinely fail in the marketplace.

First of all, they're usually volunteers, people predisposed to participate (not so ordinary consumers). Second, in a focus group setting, they are influenced by others around them. It only takes one seemingly confident person to sway the group. Third, they are often motivated to participate for reasons other than offering 'honest' opinions. Fourth, they are usually asked to make snap judgments. And fifth, most focus groups are not subjected to months of behavior-changing communication.

Right. Perrier was successful not because it had the best water, but because it entered the market at a time when consumers were status conscious and said: hey, this water is for people with status, thus the French name. Cool, eh? Cool enough that as the consumers changed their behavior (largely because of other great marketing strategies), Perrier can now be purchased in a plastic water bottle.

Don't get me wrong. Focus groups can be a useful tool. But, at the end of the day, they are only one tool among many. Not to mention, once all the data is gathered, assuming there was no bias to begin with, it needs to be sorted, qualified, and applied properly.

Polls are no different. As Joe Klein wrote for Time magazine a couple of years ago: The vast majority of Americans--as many as 90 percent, pollsters told him privately--refuse to answer questions when the wizard calls (although the number is marginally better this hot election year); people who use cell phones exclusively, mostly younger voters, are unreachable; and wizards frequently 'correct' for these things, by "weighting" their polls.

Wow! Does that mean polling is less scientific and more speculative than ever? Maybe a poll will would provide the answer. And if not, a focus group could do the trick. Ahem.

Seeing A Successful Future

We recently provided public relations support and writing services for a two-month run of Matsuri, which is also the number one production show in Japan.

The show, which featured world-ranked professional athletes and Olympic medalists, combined athletics, extreme sports, dance, and Japanese tradition. While in Las Vegas, it scored a long list of positive local and national reviews. Not bad, considering we never had an opportunity to see the show prior to the public relations launch.

Sometimes our job is like that. In a city like Las Vegas, the vision of what's to come is all you can hope to communicate. We've worked on countless communication projects for shows, events, companies, and others over the years, ranging from The Alexander Dawson School at Rainbow Mountain to New York - New York Hotel & Casino to Konami's entrance in the United States.

Next up is something I'm really looking forward to: The inaugural Concours d'Elegance Las Vegas.

Concours d’Elegance Las Vegas, an upscale auto show for legacy and select classic automobiles, will be held in Las Vegas, Oct. 20-22. It's already creating a preliminary buzz in the auto world after recently securing George Barris as honorary chairman. Barris, if you don't know, is the best-known designer of custom cars in the world.

In addition to creating thousands of custom cars, Barris’ work has appeared in custom magazines, books, television programs, and motion pictures since the 1950's. Much of his work has become an integral part of American culture, including the original Batmobile and latest James Bond car. Recently, he appeared on ABC TV's popular show ''Extreme Makeover.''

Beyond the Barris connection, we've been thrilled to work with Concours development veteran Elaine Sherer and retired Saatchi & Saatchi designer Don Lais. Both are great to work with -- Elaine because she immediately saw the value of implementing our core message strategy and Don because he has an uncanny ability to grasp a visual concept and bring it to reality.

The end result is an event that is already shaping up to be a huge success with more than 100 mint condition legacy automobiles featured, along with a special venue for classic cars, an automotive art show, live music, and gourmet food vendors. Ultimately, Las Vegas will become the most visiable and successful Concours location in the world with more accommodations, world class dining, fashion, golf, and entertainment than any previous Concours venue.

If you'd like to see the communication and news of this event unfold, visit www.lasvegasconcours.com . Right now there is a place holder for the Website, but we're expecting Don to resolve a nav bar issue soon so the rest of the site and event information will follow. In short, if you love automobiles, we'll be seeing you in Las Vegas this October.

Freezing A Crisis With A Frosty

Maybe.

That was my conclusion after reading about a marketing study, "Is That a Finger in My Chili?", as highlighted in a Las Vegas Sun article. Maybe the study's solution would have worked. Maybe not.

While Kathryn A. Braun-LaTour and her husband, Michael LaTour, are right on several points--giving away free Frosty milkshakes was a mistake, addressing a problem is a must when facing a crisis, and that emotional advertising can be extremely effective--the study reaches too far in suggesting that the best way to handle a crisis is to appeal to positive memories of that company.

The Wendy's case was much more complex as a study in crisis communication. First and foremost, the company was already suffering from an eroding market share, limited target audience (older baby boomers), and McDonald's ability to break into the chicken sandwich and entree-sized salad portion of the quick service market. That said, the finger incident, planted or not, was similar to pouring salt on an open wound. Second, the incident created an immediate negative and emotionally-charged impression (Wendy's=finger), not necessarily of the brand, but certainly an unappetizing image.

To their credit, the Wendy's team did a lot of things right in terms of crisis communication. Of course, the one thing they did wrong, to offer free Frosty milkshakes as an offering attached, unfortunately, to the one image they needed to erase from our short-term memories, had the most impact. The broadcast media play--complete with the finger image and Wendy's brand--outpaced their paid advertising and reinforced the unappetizing image all over again. Not to mention, a Frosty milkshake has a very limited appeal in that not many people appreciate a milkshake you have to eat with a spoon.

If the Wendy's team wanted to reward loyal customers for sticking by them during a crisis that was proven not to be their fault, an item with broader appeal and a better message may have helped. As it turned out, their message was nothing more than distress advertising, which generally produces mixed short-term results and few, if ever, long-term results.

Sure, the LaTours are right in suggesting that Wendy's needed to shift the focus from the finger incident to something positive. But false memories of a Wendy's that never existed? I don't think so. This is where I depart from their solution.

The study bases much of its claims around a survey filled out by university students, which are not representative of Wendy's traditional core audience. According to the story, the survey rated the students' emotional response to the Frosty ad vs. nostalgia advertising designed to appeal to their emotions. Not surprisingly, the students preferred the nostalgia advertising. It might also be worthwhile to point out that the test advertising had the benefit of being disassociated with the finger story in that the nostalgia advertising was not competing against daily news coverage of the incident at a 10-1 ratio. In short, given the same circumstances, the LaTours' ads would have been placed under similar scrutiny, with the public wondering if Wendy's was trying to make them forget recent events.

The bottom-line: the decision to appeal to a person's positive memories of that company during a crisis is a roll of the dice. It make work sometimes. It may not work other times. It depends on the specific circumstances of the event and the company. Sure, we all take comfort in believing communication formulas work miracles, but the reality is a sound communication process-not a formula-will guide you toward an effective resolution in a crisis communication situation.

So would the LaTours' ads have worked? Maybe, but I wouldn't have banked on it, especially if those ads contained images that never existed at Wendy's before. A better test of Wendy's ability to rebound in the face of changing times is just ahead.

Wendy's is working to broaden its audience by marketing to the 16-to-28 crowd. They finally have a clear marketing message, which they haven't had since Dave Thomas died in 2002. And, they're testing new Frescata deli-style sandwiches. Now that, my friends, is smart stuff. I look forward to seeing how it plays out for my former 'high-school job' employer.

Introducing Hun Productions

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Here is the first design for our new creative line featuring modernized versions of vintage World War II posters. We decided to launch this line first because it's a fun and original product. It's also simple, something we could put up beyond Copywrite, Ink. logowear as a storefront place holder. You can also see the image and its "I'm Watching You" partner at Back Lot Projects

Adding Copywrite, Ink. Logowear

Before my Writing For Public Relations class ended in March, one of my students asked me if there were any crossover jobs for public relations professionals. I gave him the usual cross-industry answers, ranging from ad copywriter to event coordinator. There was another I forgot to mention.

A public relations professional, assuming they're a talented writer, could break into giftware industry. After all, someone has to write all those colorful quips and poems that decorate shirts, mugs, cards, and cups. I know they do because I worked on assignment for Stanley Papel Designs, one of the most recognized giftware manufactures in the world. It's a fun and competitive industry, especially if you can write messages that appeal to a broad audience.

I broke into the industry after sending a four-line resume that said nothing more than: "Experience: Great. Creative: Even Better." Stanley called me personally and said he's give me a shot, adding that out of all the resumes he received, mine was the only one short enough to fit on a mug. Go figure.

I was happy enough. It was a job and I needed jobs. I completed several projects for Stanley Papel before catering to more commercial clients. It was fun and I often missed it. Recently, I found out that I don't have to miss it anymore. Thanks to the advent of computer technology, I can test market giftware with Cafe Press and Zazzle.

Last week, we added Copywrite, Ink. logowear as a place holder to our new store at Cafe Press, but we already have some fun ideas and designs that we'll add in the months ahead. I'll preview a few here from time to time, but in the meantime, if you want to see what our logo looks like on coffee cups, T-shirts, and teddy bears, click on the links we've added on the right. Who knows? You just might like one for your very own.

Honoring Communication Excellence

Relatively few industries offer professionals as many peer review opportunities and recognition as the communication industry. In addition to international and national competitions, most major markets host several local or regional award programs, some of which provide the first tier of national competition.

In Las Vegas, there are several awards programs, each with its own criteria and judging principles. A few notables include: Las Vegas Advertising Federation's Addy Awards, Women In Communications' Electronic Media Awards, the Public Relations Society of America's Tri-State Pinnacle Awards, and the International Association of Business Communicators/Las Vegas (IABC/Las Vegas) Bronze Quill Awards. There are others, enough so that most agencies and firms can only participate in one or two every year.

While we enter some from time to time (and sometimes our clients enter, given that many are agencies), my personal favorite remains the IABC/Las Vegas Bronze Quill Awards, which recently celebrated its 25th anniversary. It is the longest continually-running awards program in Las Vegas.

What sets it apart from the other programs (even the Addys, which is generally considered the most prestigious agency awards program in Las Vegas), is that an accompanying work plan accounts for half of the judges' score. In other words, it is not enough to produce great-looking or creative work. The objectives, target audience, budget, and documented results all contribute to the judges' assessment of the piece. Further, each entry is recognized on its own merit, regardless of other entries in the same category. Most often, judges include feedback along with the entry's scores.

Last Thursday, we were pleased to learn that all three of our entries in this year's competition received recognition at the IABC/Las Vegas Bronze Quill Awards: two Bronze Quills and one Award of Excellence. The first piece to receive a Bronze Quill was a collaborative self-promotion piece with our friends at Colorado-based Aisle 9 Design (one panel is shown in our June 2005 archives). The piece also received an award of excellence at the Addys last year.

The second Bronze Quill was earned for work with Black Gaming, which owns three of the four resorts located in Mesquite, Nevada. I was especially pleased to see their direct mail letters recognized for two reasons. First, because the letters generated results: local active response was 57 percent (78 percent in certain segments); drive-in customer response was 19 percent (53 percent in certain segments); and fly-in customer response rates were 7 percent (24 percent in certain segments). In sum, the three properties increased their response rates by 200 percent from previous mailers (despite using the same offers), customer play increased by 60 percent; and the three properties collectively reclaimed 40 percent of their inactive customers with the first mailing, which cost 60 percent less to produce than their previous direct mail. The other reason I was pleased to see this piece recognized was because our client was credited. We cannot thank our contacts there enough; they give us great direction and then, even more importantly, the freedom to execute that direction based on our extensive direct mail experience. The results have reinforced their decision to do so. As the old saying goes, you're only as good as your clients allow you to be. Here, we have met and continue to work with the best.

Additional client kudos go to ACME Home Elevator for allowing us to add honest and human elements to their news release, written by Kim Becker, vice president of Copywrite, Ink. The release, which centered around ACME's participation on ABC's Extreme Makeover: Home Edition, received an award of excellence, the highest award given in the news release category this year. Approved by ABC and distributed to a broad range of industry publications and local network affiliates, the release not only generated client exposure but also provided a role model case study for why companies need to get involved within their communities.

For students taking my Writing for Public Relations class at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, it also provides another example as to why the one-page news release concept is passe, assuming you have something worth writing about. Sure, one-page releases are still preferred, but in the case study above, the story demanded three pages. ABC and other media outlets agreed. Next week, I'm planning to expound more on this subject, citing an applicable concept from the least likely public relations resource: Robert Pirsig's Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance.

Until then, please keep in mind my other quip about awards: they should always be the sequel to great results, never the pilot. In other words, creativity for creativity's sake is best left to fine arts. In business communication, results come first.